By: Ross Silver, Expert of Sylva International
Welcome to the dog days of summer where the sun rises early and shines brightly until nearly 9pm. I love the summer and in Oregon the land is bright green, the sky is blue and the lakes look like emeralds (locals like me are terrible though, do not consider moving here J). Equity markets tend to underperform during the summer, but we don’t. The Sylva Portfolio, which is a paper trading account we share for free with our audience, is up over 33% year to date, and up over 352% since its inception in 2016. The truth is, good stock pickers can always find a way to make money and outperform the market even during the summer.
The broader market’s underperformance during this time may be due to people taking time off to enjoy their surroundings. According a recently concluded “highly scientific” study, sponsored by Sylva, wherein I tracked the habits of me during the past few weeks, being outdoors received 100% of the vote versus 0% of the vote being received by being indoors. I can tell you that being cooped up in an air conditioned office when it is 80+ degrees outside is torture. As a result I am not trading stocks nor looking for investment ideas as much as I am in the Fall and Winter.
Now that I just scientifically explained how the stock market works during the summer in the previous paragraph, let us move on to the topic of experts. An expert is defined as: “a person who has a comprehensive and authoritative knowledge of or skill in a particular area.” Someone who is able to take 10 shots of cheap whiskey (or more), capture a live chicken with their bare hands (gently of course, #chickenstoo), and scale a 10 foot barbed wire fence unscathed while smoking a cigarette, repeatedly, is defined as an expert per the definition of the word expert. If anyone reading this has done the aforementioned, repeatedly or even once, I want to be your friend (I am not joking, we crazies need to stick together). Experts in the equity markets are individuals who have demonstrated an ability to produce outsized returns. Producing outsized returns depicts an authoritative knowledge or skill, right? When I turn on the television and watch the talking heads speak about equity markets, I am not getting the person who has repeatedly carried the chicken to safety, the expert(s), am I? The answer is no. Why do I mention this? The answer is an important one. Too many times I meet with other investors, primarily retail investors, and they believe what they see on major networks or what they read in analyst reports to be the opinions of experts. Those people are not experts, those people are entertainers. Experts require a hefty price of admission to get to them and are never free. Anyone offering you free investment advice is no expert. Caveat emptor!
Saratoga just opened and I am giddy. I have never been to Saratoga and hope to visit the iconic racetrack this summer as I have many friends running their horses at the meet. I wish all of their horse’s safe passage and racing luck! The major sports don’t start back up until late August/early September, until then, the Sports Desk is on vacation.
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Pick5 Media is launching a fantasy stock picking contest, with a $10,000 grand prize, and no entry fee. The contest starts on August 5th and runs through August 30th. Entry is limited to the fist 2,000 people that sign up, so visit www.pick5stocks.com to secure your spot!